While many Republicans like to tie Obama’s prospects of re-election to those of Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush, the 2004 election bears too many striking similarities to compare it to anything else.
President Obama’s approval rating as measured by Gallup now matches its highest mark in nearly two years. Obama’s 14th quarter average approval of 46.8% has only led to an increasing number of comparisons between the 2012 and 2004 elections.
George H.W. Bush had an approval rating of 39.2% in July of 1992, Carter’s was 35.8% in July of 1980 and George W. Bush sat at around 47%.
Throw in an unlikable, seemingly out of touch, flip-flopping challenger from Massachusetts and you have your match. As it stands today, I would be surprised to see a final outcome much different than in ‘04.